Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11728

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11727, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11728
    27 Oct 2026, 08:17 UTC

    UBE2E2

    microglia, braak

    predictionUBE2E2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfed71d6ad63f3963

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e58898654f6b69d25447be00…
    follows 2c6613a4668a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11737 (2026-10-27 08:28 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11728: UBE2E2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.13, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2E2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.