Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11726

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.514). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11725, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11726
    27 Oct 2026, 08:14 UTC

    EDEM1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEDEM1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerededd883987f5fe792

    discovery+0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.514)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9d7a68bd2d0f0852e3b6b004…
    follows d0087ab8a63d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11737 (2026-10-27 08:28 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11726: EDEM1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.19, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EDEM1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.