Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11714

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.919). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11713, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11714
    27 Oct 2026, 07:58 UTC

    MCHR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMCHR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfc55c22f3e672607

    discovery-0.04 p=0.919 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.466 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.919)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    49fb11c3295525b1b9eb9722…
    follows d7c3ee705af7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11737 (2026-10-27 08:28 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11714: MCHR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MCHR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.