Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11711

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.894). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11710, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11711
    27 Oct 2026, 07:55 UTC

    RPS6KA2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionRPS6KA2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9b3b48aaa0040943

    discovery+0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.894)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d6e44206c20210fd55b0078b…
    follows 6d14bd411d36…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11737 (2026-10-27 08:28 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11711: RPS6KA2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.27, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPS6KA2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.