Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11701

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.416). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11700, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11701
    27 Oct 2026, 07:42 UTC

    MDM4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMDM4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf97728d3d4006984

    discovery+0.31 p=0.416 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.852 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.416)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8e4e5b95ca07bd47d20912f9…
    follows 48cb16bd4f6b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11710 (2026-10-27 07:54 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11701: MDM4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MDM4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.