Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11691

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.078). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11690, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11691
    27 Oct 2026, 07:28 UTC

    GRB10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGRB10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5b98221bcd83f57e

    discovery-0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    replication-0.60 p=0.089 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.078)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7a023223d79f1dd43b213bba…
    follows 86a0a0209f32…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11710 (2026-10-27 07:54 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11691: GRB10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18), 95% CI -0.84 to -0.22. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.68 (p 0.0021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.70 to -0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRB10 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.