Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11689

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11688, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11689
    27 Oct 2026, 07:25 UTC

    C4B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC4B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede7a06036caacd161

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    16e6f15b0f460a7dc4f5cbe8…
    follows 2027997ab6af…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11710 (2026-10-27 07:54 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11689: C4B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C4B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.