Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11678

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.255). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11677, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11678
    27 Oct 2026, 07:08 UTC

    PHF6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPHF6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered63b414391199a5fc

    discovery+0.42 p=0.255 n=9

    replication+0.43 p=0.244 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.255)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a8480761bfd7c4c1e1668f8c…
    follows 3e52f37806f6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11685 (2026-10-27 07:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11678: PHF6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PHF6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.