Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11661

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.740). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11660, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11661
    27 Oct 2026, 06:46 UTC

    MYRIP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMYRIP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0e56570b2c27c0f1

    discovery-0.13 p=0.740 n=9

    replication+0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.740)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4c151ed09f3e3d612e08b86c…
    follows 7af179527de5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11685 (2026-10-27 07:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11661: MYRIP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYRIP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.