Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11640

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.323). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11639, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11640
    27 Oct 2026, 06:21 UTC

    SMO

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSMO in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbefafd445ffe1892

    discovery-0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.323)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5509321858f298f106054505…
    follows 0da58da8ecd8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11658 (2026-10-27 06:43 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11640: SMO in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SMO in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.