Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11638

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.048; held-out +0.25 p 0.508). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11637, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11638
    27 Oct 2026, 06:19 UTC

    LRP5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLRP5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered520f603a13f565d0

    discovery-0.67 p=0.048 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.508 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.048; held-out +0.25 p 0.508)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    11bef3e345320a0b5d059b95…
    follows 32313c1de7f3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11658 (2026-10-27 06:43 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11638: LRP5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRP5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.