Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11634

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11633, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11634
    27 Oct 2026, 06:13 UTC

    SLC1A7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC1A7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3907a0a8dcac03b1

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9269fd10a65521d0113c5695…
    follows e9b133e12473…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11658 (2026-10-27 06:43 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11634: SLC1A7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC1A7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.