Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11629

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11628, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11629
    27 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC

    SFMBT2

    microglia, braak

    predictionSFMBT2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered871101593f9f3ad5

    discovery-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    980ac9b6254495ba5688f2f3…
    follows c7eb72908616…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11630 (2026-10-27 06:08 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11629: SFMBT2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.20, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SFMBT2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.