Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11612

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.756). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11611, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11612
    27 Oct 2026, 05:45 UTC

    SORD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSORD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered26911687db30fc79

    discovery-0.12 p=0.756 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.756)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fcf35cad5b167a839c58dc8c…
    follows e7f8309ffb70…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11630 (2026-10-27 06:08 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11612: SORD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SORD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.