Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11609

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.400). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11608, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11609
    27 Oct 2026, 05:43 UTC

    CHST3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCHST3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9d56779ab88f502d

    discovery-0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.400)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    249f34bcd795e852196a185b…
    follows 986a8ed400e5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11630 (2026-10-27 06:08 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11609: CHST3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.030, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.63 to -0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHST3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.