Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11603

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11602, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11603
    27 Oct 2026, 05:34 UTC

    INSM1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionINSM1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2f495a29efbaf6c0

    discovery-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    34bbcf1b1c7d3a73d484b4d4…
    follows 0b261ba2e3dd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11605 (2026-10-27 05:37 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11603: INSM1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for INSM1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.