Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11597

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.042; held-out -0.12 p 0.750). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11596, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11597
    27 Oct 2026, 05:26 UTC

    TCF3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTCF3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede68983711004867f

    discovery-0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.750 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.042; held-out -0.12 p 0.750)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    57d9151b2b156d2b082c4052…
    follows 0ebbe4ea8acf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11605 (2026-10-27 05:37 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11597: TCF3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.060, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.010, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TCF3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.