Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11590

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.336). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11589, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11590
    27 Oct 2026, 05:18 UTC

    AP5B1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAP5B1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered000e9a0461367c66

    discovery-0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.127 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.336)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    047cbd40c9864e51f7ae82cf…
    follows 20829a4a7d68…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11605 (2026-10-27 05:37 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11590: AP5B1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.05. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.63 (p 0.0047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AP5B1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.