Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11583

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11582, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11583
    27 Oct 2026, 05:09 UTC

    MYO1F

    microglia, braak

    predictionMYO1F in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5133b9d031c7cc08

    discovery-0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    replication+0.17 p=0.670 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6b4d4c6e9c7ba53639441336…
    follows ff8671970ba0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11605 (2026-10-27 05:37 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11583: MYO1F in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.16, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYO1F in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.