Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11574

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.74 p 0.023; held-out -0.04 p 0.924). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11573, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11574
    27 Oct 2026, 04:55 UTC

    DNAH17

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDNAH17 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredba38f700fea66b52

    discovery-0.74 p=0.023 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.74 p 0.023; held-out -0.04 p 0.924)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    acededead88340d076d0b327…
    follows 5fead567ba49…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11579 (2026-10-27 05:02 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11574: DNAH17 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.159, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DNAH17 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.