Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11563

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.042; held-out -0.44 p 0.237). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11562, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11563
    27 Oct 2026, 04:42 UTC

    VCAN

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionVCAN in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredea1873288b7c289c

    discovery-0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.237 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.042; held-out -0.44 p 0.237)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    a62b59c8f9a60c06d66b86f9…
    follows 10bde531c892…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11579 (2026-10-27 05:02 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11563: VCAN in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VCAN in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.