Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11554

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11553, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11554
    27 Oct 2026, 04:28 UTC

    EPS15

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEPS15 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7b78aa92aa6312b9

    discovery+0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.449 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cf6909856a2fd4a9f4badfd8…
    follows 47bfaa8d87fe…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11579 (2026-10-27 05:02 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11554: EPS15 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.24, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EPS15 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.