Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11549

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11548, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11549
    27 Oct 2026, 04:19 UTC

    RECK

    microglia, braak

    predictionRECK in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7204d68d7c9be524

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0b62f879582364b17e222aec…
    follows 5e8e01b7a26d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11553 (2026-10-27 04:27 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11549: RECK in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RECK in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.