Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11530

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11529, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11530
    27 Oct 2026, 03:52 UTC

    DUSP8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDUSP8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredda3a02552ba37598

    discovery-0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    replication-0.59 p=0.092 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f972849e002d217c906efd27…
    follows afcba982782c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11553 (2026-10-27 04:27 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11530: DUSP8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.68 (p 0.0019, n 18) vs -0.43 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DUSP8 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up DUSP8 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.38 p 0.183 (needs p < 1.9e-4)