Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11515

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.067). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11514, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11515
    27 Oct 2026, 03:32 UTC

    PPA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8eb5ceb39b855e0b

    discovery+0.63 p=0.067 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.067)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1acae3b2dcc346c2f470d4c5…
    follows 25de196dcf8d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11527 (2026-10-27 03:47 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11515: PPA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.