Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11499

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.127). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11498, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11499
    27 Oct 2026, 03:07 UTC

    PROCR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPROCR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7ffeb147f5087ddb

    discovery-0.55 p=0.127 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.391 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.127)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    552e2a8d210add9cef79d89e…
    follows 1933d7a73214…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11499 (2026-10-27 03:07 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11499: PROCR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.04, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PROCR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.