Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11487

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.850). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11486, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11487
    27 Oct 2026, 02:50 UTC

    RHOG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRHOG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc85414f5f4123e86

    discovery-0.07 p=0.850 n=9

    replication+0.39 p=0.300 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.850)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6527f1f6ee26f146ef7110df…
    follows a874705fdd1a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11499 (2026-10-27 03:07 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11487: RHOG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.19, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RHOG in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.