Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11475

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11474, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11475
    27 Oct 2026, 02:32 UTC

    UBE2A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1087f025ea4978c9

    discovery-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e3214d9dd3df050c441ebad4…
    follows 72290dc7aa00…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11499 (2026-10-27 03:07 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11475: UBE2A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.