Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11433

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11432, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11433
    27 Oct 2026, 02:18 UTC

    KIT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKIT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered886bcc966b87d1ba

    discovery+0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.529 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    de4a0a8d0e81f2f9c5c3592a…
    follows 79fa4327ec80…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11474 (2026-10-27 02:32 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11433: KIT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KIT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.