Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11423

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.115). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11422, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11423
    27 Oct 2026, 02:05 UTC

    KAT2A

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionKAT2A in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7f7882fe938e4a8b

    discovery+0.56 p=0.115 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.115)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dfa5338c6073e432f12b5db7…
    follows 9801ecd6843a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11425 (2026-10-27 02:06 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11423: KAT2A in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.067, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.37 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KAT2A in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.