Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11416

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11415, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11416
    27 Oct 2026, 01:55 UTC

    MCIDAS

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMCIDAS in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc92533ca9c6c1617

    discovery+0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    96c7a1f49ef514c5a4478a1c…
    follows 1e69db6dfb21…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11425 (2026-10-27 02:06 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11416: MCIDAS in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MCIDAS in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.