Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11397

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.82 p 0.0064; held-out -0.12 p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11396, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11397
    27 Oct 2026, 01:34 UTC

    KLHL13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKLHL13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4cb27bfa6207599e

    discovery+0.82 p=0.0064 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.82 p 0.0064; held-out -0.12 p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    3225ef310ca6b13f47fc352d…
    follows 4998ca8d63ed…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11398 (2026-10-27 01:35 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11397: KLHL13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.146, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.26 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.146, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KLHL13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.