Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11395

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11394, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11395
    27 Oct 2026, 01:31 UTC

    DSP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDSP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8a0264ad73113202

    discovery+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.125 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    72292f7dea022d7582339a86…
    follows 2113493d6e79…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11398 (2026-10-27 01:35 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11395: DSP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.66, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DSP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.