Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11389

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11388, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11389
    27 Oct 2026, 01:23 UTC

    CD180

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCD180 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7c342f6c8d4638f5

    discovery+0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e944d0fa73c35ca2af945fee…
    follows b5d3ecc9460c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11398 (2026-10-27 01:35 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11389: CD180 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.09, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD180 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.