Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11387

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11386, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11387
    27 Oct 2026, 01:20 UTC

    DNAJC16

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDNAJC16 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered03c1c363f5ba4aa4

    discovery-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.237 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5a8d529ec7054bdf582add2c…
    follows 1241ab6fa58f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11398 (2026-10-27 01:35 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11387: DNAJC16 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DNAJC16 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.