Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11385

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11384, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11385
    27 Oct 2026, 01:17 UTC

    TPST1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTPST1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9a2db50a3ef4fcd2

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.85 p=0.0040 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d5ec46aaaae8b5f309494852…
    follows c6aeae39d23c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11398 (2026-10-27 01:35 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11385: TPST1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPST1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.