Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11381

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11380, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11381
    27 Oct 2026, 01:11 UTC

    DOT1L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDOT1L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered927019d259f244ff

    discovery-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    61c053990f7272c9f481f740…
    follows 331ddc617403…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11398 (2026-10-27 01:35 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11381: DOT1L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DOT1L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.