Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11371

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.214). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11370, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11371
    27 Oct 2026, 00:58 UTC

    DGUOK

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDGUOK in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4badcfa2ea04061b

    discovery-0.46 p=0.214 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.214)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8c3ece90d778646e6380cf33…
    follows 6b7b18fb1110…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11372 (2026-10-27 01:00 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11371: DGUOK in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DGUOK in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.