Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11364

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.386). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11363, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11364
    27 Oct 2026, 00:49 UTC

    OPN1LW

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOPN1LW in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf98c20d828f631f7

    discovery-0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.665 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.386)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    11529e42f284b00ac57556d7…
    follows 9c92b40b0a2d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11372 (2026-10-27 01:00 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11364: OPN1LW in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OPN1LW in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.