Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11361

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.212). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11360, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11361
    27 Oct 2026, 00:44 UTC

    EIF2AK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEIF2AK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered05b950c1b8d9e021

    discovery+0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.154 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.212)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5d8094150f2b06a5fd07250d…
    follows 9bd994abb887…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11372 (2026-10-27 01:00 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11361: EIF2AK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.10, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EIF2AK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.