Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11311

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.456). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11310, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11311
    26 Oct 2026, 23:34 UTC

    NDRG2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionNDRG2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede3a64d26f3ca9b47

    discovery+0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.456)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f1286e839dd02982d0d64562…
    follows 0413f8650340…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11319 (2026-10-26 23:45 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11311: NDRG2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.15, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NDRG2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.