Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11303

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.038; held-out +0.01 p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11302, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11303
    26 Oct 2026, 23:23 UTC

    COA7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOA7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfc771fcde70af677

    discovery-0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.038; held-out +0.01 p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    79bc023d2301cbaf1c356f49…
    follows 9b980f3faa59…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11319 (2026-10-26 23:45 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11303: COA7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COA7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.