Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11285

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.018; held-out -0.20 p 0.615). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11284, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11285
    26 Oct 2026, 22:58 UTC

    HSD17B7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHSD17B7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0b2cd338f70c2c3a

    discovery+0.76 p=0.018 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.615 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.018; held-out -0.20 p 0.615)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    cd647dabeb54d4080685b5e0…
    follows 42d7f15a9f6f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11292 (2026-10-26 23:10 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11285: HSD17B7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HSD17B7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.