Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11283

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.822). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11282, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11283
    26 Oct 2026, 22:56 UTC

    MS4A4A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMS4A4A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc0999a1a36d75f7c

    discovery+0.09 p=0.822 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.822)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9fd75072d4130368628920a4…
    follows 91bca4d968c2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11292 (2026-10-26 23:10 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11283: MS4A4A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.13, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MS4A4A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.