Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11279

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.602). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11278, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11279
    26 Oct 2026, 22:50 UTC

    ITM2C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionITM2C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered20a4196e1344f3a8

    discovery+0.20 p=0.602 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.602)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a5f4d0131e09f41f6f34b07a…
    follows 0c4a59cfa5d7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11292 (2026-10-26 23:10 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11279: ITM2C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ITM2C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.