Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11271

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.149). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11270, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11271
    26 Oct 2026, 22:39 UTC

    APOF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAPOF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb3a2cbafe00c53b7

    discovery-0.52 p=0.149 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.149)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    216bd067859256a4cf1044ae…
    follows 3c65c6b8ac07…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11292 (2026-10-26 23:10 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11271: APOF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APOF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.