Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11264

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.204). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11263, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11264
    26 Oct 2026, 22:28 UTC

    CDC42BPA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCDC42BPA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered80fae0a52b0cf714

    discovery+0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.204)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    256277e62b2619c850a2c3f5…
    follows f5ce965a99fa…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11265 (2026-10-26 22:29 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11264: CDC42BPA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDC42BPA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.