Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11262

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11261, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11262
    26 Oct 2026, 22:25 UTC

    TMEM170A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM170A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered827fd5b9f86b895a

    discovery+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.912 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a6d8a4048bb44d1f776f28e0…
    follows 4587e739dc7c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11265 (2026-10-26 22:29 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11262: TMEM170A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM170A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.