Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11260

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.79 p 0.011; held-out -0.42 p 0.266). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11259, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11260
    26 Oct 2026, 22:22 UTC

    FUBP3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFUBP3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6d45ccbd1f85e2b8

    discovery-0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.266 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.79 p 0.011; held-out -0.42 p 0.266)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    14a132a7ff891e56c19e6d9d…
    follows 4b48d52d5341…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11265 (2026-10-26 22:29 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11260: FUBP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.65 (p 0.0033, n 18), 95% CI -0.86 to -0.27. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.65 (p 0.0033, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.65 (p 0.0036, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.78 to -0.61, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.65 (p 0.0033, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FUBP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.