Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11252

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.343). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11251, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11252
    26 Oct 2026, 22:11 UTC

    MRPL28

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMRPL28 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered59c8d63fd1385460

    discovery+0.36 p=0.343 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.343)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d83764df14d3e021b5ab8d64…
    follows 17012dc361cb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11265 (2026-10-26 22:29 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11252: MRPL28 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18) vs +0.18 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MRPL28 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MRPL28 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.25 p 0.374 (needs p < 1.9e-4)